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Fisher: Low or High, Stock Valuations Don’t Tell You When to Buy

2019年11月15日 19:59 来源于 财新网
Stock valuations aren’t predictive. Not in the U.S., China or anywhere else — in any time period anyone really cares about
In all 145 years through 2018, any level of P/E, however high or low, predicted nothing one year into the future. Photo: VCG

Are stocks overvalued worldwide? The IMF says yes, claiming American and Japanese stocks are the priciest — set to tumble once investors come to their senses. Together, America and Japan account for more than 70% of developed world stock market capitalization. If they tanked, so would global markets. China wouldn’t be immune, as plunging developed world stocks would raise fears of a global recession cratering demand for Chinese goods and services. Thankfully, though, you can relax. I’ve spent decades researching stock valuations. They aren’t predictive. Not in the U.S., China or anywhere else — in any time period anyone really cares about.

版面编辑:喻竹杨洋
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