Opinion: The Market Expects a U.S. Rate Cut, But the Market Is Wrong

The market is pricing in an 80% probability of at least one rate cut later this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve. We think the market is wrong.

The Fed is already underpinning equity markets, fourth quarter profits in the aggregate are not going to be as bad as presumed, and while top-line economic growth will be slower in the first quarter (inventory drawdowns, Boeing, retail spending), the underlying picture is still positive, notably in the housing market. As the lagged impact of headwinds from overly tight financial conditions fades, along with trade conflict with China, the tailwinds from increased liquidity will take hold.